საინტერესო

სამოქალაქო თვითმფრინავის მომავალი, როგორი იქნება ის 20 და 50 წლის შემდეგ

მიუხედავად იმისა, რომ 60-იანი წლების შემდეგ, ავიაბაზარზე ბევრი ცვლილება განხორციელდა, ტექნოლოგიებმა უსაფრთხოების ნორმება გაზარდა, სამოქალაქო თვითმფრინავი მაინც თითქმის ისეთივეა, როგორც 50 წლის წინ.

მოსაზრების ჭეშემარიტების ასახსნელად ის არგუმენტიც კმარა, რომ პოპულარულმა Boeing 737-მა ფრენები 1967 წელს დაიწყო.

70-იან წლებში, ცვლილებებისა და ნოვაციის შემოტანის მცდელობა ნამდვილად იყო. ბაზარზე 2 ზებგერითი სამგზავრო თვითმფრინავი Concorde და Tu 144 გამოჩნდა. დასავლეთის მიმართულებით ფრენისას ადამიანი დროს ასწრებდა, თუმცა ასეთი სისწრაფე, უფრო სწორედ აჩქარება ბევრისთვის დისკომფორტული გახდა, გარდა ამისა ხარჯი იმდენად მაღალი იყო, რომ 2-3 საათის მოგება დამატებით რამდენიმე ათას დოლარად ბიზნესმენებსაც არ უღირდათ. 1997 წელს კონკორდით ნიუ-იორკიდან ლონდონამდე მგზავრობის საფასურმა $8000-ს მიაღწია.

ამავე პერიოდში ტექნოლოგიების სხვა დარგები: ელექტრონიკა და კომუნიკაცია გაცილებით სწრაფად განვითარდა. განვითარება ტრანსპორტის სფეროსაც შეეხება, ბოლო პერიოდში ელექტრომობილების წარმოების მნიშვნელოვანი ზრდა აღინიშნება, ავიაბაზარზე კი მხოლოდ მისი კონტურები იხაზება.

თუ დღეს ავიაციის სფერო ახლოს დგას 50 წლის წინანდელთან, როგორი იქნება ის 50 წლის შემდეგ? სვამს ბევრი ექსპერტი ტექნიკოსი, თუ უბრალოდ დაინტერესებული ადამიანი მარტივ შეკითხვას. 2068 წლამდე ბევრად ადრე ელექტრო და ჰიბრიდული თვითმფრონავების გამოჩენაა მოსალოდნელი. საწვავის ხარჯის შემცირებასთან ერთად ელექტრომობილის მსგავსად ეკოლოგიური გარემო უმჯობესდება და ხმაურის დონეც მცირდება, რასაც ნაკლები ყურადღება ექცევა, მაგრამ სინამდვილეში ხმაურით დაბინძურება დიდი ქალაქების სერიოზული პრობლემაა. ამსათან ერთად მოსალოდნელი მცირე ზომი 10-12 მგზავრზე გათვლილი თვითმფინავების მნიშვნელოვანი მატება, მოლკლე მანძილის დასაფარად. მოსახლეობის, ურბანიზაციის დონისა და საგზაო ტრანსპორტის მატების პარალელურად საჰაერო ტრანსპორტის განვითარება საცობებისგან განტვირთვის გარკვეულ შანსს იძლევა. მგზავრთნაკადი ახლაც იზრდება. თუ მსოფლიოს უდიდესმა Hartsfield-ის აეროპორტი ატლანტაში 2006 წელს 85 მილიონ მგზავრს მოემსახურა, 2016 წელს ეს მაშვენებელი 104 მილიონამდე გაიზარდა, იმავე პეროდში ბრიტანეთის Heathrow-ის აეროპრტმა მგზავრთნაკადი 77-დან 76 მილიონამდე გაზარდა. სტამბოლის ახალი აეროპორტი კი, რომლის გახსნაც 2018 წლის ოქტომბერშია დაგეგმილი 200 მილიონ მგზავრზე იქნება გათვლილი.

როგორც Airbuss-ში აცხადებენ მომავალ 20 წელიწდში მგზავრთა მომსახურებისთვის 600 000 პილოტი გახდება საჭირო. რაც შეეხება უპილოტო სამგზავრო თვითმფინავებს, მისი პერსპექტივა შედარებით უფრო შორეულია და უახლოეს მომავალში არ განიხილება.

ბოლო პერიოდში ზებგერითი თვითმფრინავის დაბრუნებაზე სულ უფრო ხშირად საუბრობენ. მგზავრობის დროის შემცირების სურვილის ფონზე მათზე მოთხოვნა საკმაოდ დიდია.

ცვლილებები დიზაინში და მის ინტერიერშიც დასაებია. აერონავტიკის კანონების შესაბამისად ფრთები ისევ დარჩება, თუმცა შიდა ინტერიერი შესაძლოა ულტრამაღალი გარჩევადობის ეკრანებით დაოფაროს, ან მთლიანი ფიუჟელაზი შეიმინოს.

ზუსტად რა ცვლილებები მოხდება ავიაციის სფეროში რთული, თუმცა უკვე ნათელია, რომ 20 და მითუმეტეს 50 წლის შემდეგ თვითმფრინავი და მისი საშუალებით მგზავრობა ამჟამინდელისგან განსხვავებული იქნება.

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