საინტერესო

“მარიაჟობის“ ეკონომიკა – რატომ სურთ ადამიანებს, ჩანდნენ უფრო მდიდრები, ვიდრე რეალურად არიან

XIX საუკუნის ბოლოს ამერიკელმა ეკონომისტმა, ტორსტეინ ვებლენმა (1857-1929) წარმოადგინა ძალიან საინტერესო თეორია, თუ რატომ სვამენ და ეწევიან ადამიანები საზოგადოებრივი თავშეყრის ადგილებში.

ამ შესანიშნავი ნაშრომის მეოთხე თავში „წარმატებული კლასის თეორია“ (1899) ის ამტკიცებს, რომ ღარიბებს მოწევითა და სმით სურთ, თავი მდიდრებად გაასაღონ, რადგან ღარიბებს არ აქვთ საშუალება, იყიდონ ფუფუნების ისეთი საგნები, როგორიცაა ალკოჰოლი და თამბაქო.
მიუხედავად იმისა, რომ დალევა და მოწევა საზოგადოებრივი თავშეყრის ადგილებში დღეს აღარავის აკვირვებს, ვებლენის იდეებმა დემონსტრაციული მოხმარების შესახებ საფუძველი ჩაუყარა ე.წ. „მარიაჟობის“ ეკონომიკურ ანალიზს“. ვებლენის ნივთები გამოირჩევა ერთი პარადოქსული თავისებურებით – ფასების ზრდასთან ერთად, მათზე მოთხოვნაც იზრდება. ამისი მიზეზი ისაა, რომ ვებლენის ნივთებს ძირითადად „სამარიაჟოდ“ მოიხმარენ, და ვინაიდან  ძვირადღირებული ნივთებით „მარიაჟობა“ უფრო ადვილია, ამიტომ ლოგიკურია, რომ ფასის ზრდასთან ერთად მოთხოვნაც იზრდება. ვებლენის ნივთები შეიძლება იყოს ყველაფერი – როლექსის საათი, ძვირადღირებული მობილური ტელეფონი, ბრენდული ტანისამოსი, ლამაზი მანქანა. რაც მეტია ამ ნივთების ფასი, მით მეტად ყიდულობს მას ხალხი, რათა სხვებზე მოახდინოს შთაბეჭდილება.
ვინ „მარიაჟობს“ და რატომ?
ომერ მოავისა (რომელიც წარსულში ISET-ში ასწავლიდა) და ზვიკა ნემანის 2012 წელს გამოქვეყნებული ნაშრომის თანახმად, „მარიაჟობა“ არის გზა, მოაჩვენო თავი, რომ გაქვს ფარული შემოსავალი („დანაზოგის მაჩვენებელი და სიღარიბე: დემონსტრაციული მოხმარების როლი და ადამიანური კაპიტალი“, Economic Journal 122, 933-956 გვ.). ადამიანებს შეიძლება ჰქონდეთ დაახლოებითი წარმოდგენა თავიანთი მეზობლების, კოლეგების, მეგობრებისა და იმ ადამიანების შემოსავლების შესახებ, ვისთანაც ურთიერთობენ, თუმცა მათ ეს დანამდვილებით მაინც არ იციან. შესაბამისად, არსებობს სპეკულაციის გარკვეული სივრცე და, თუ ადამიანი ხედავს, რომ მისი თანამშრომელი სამსახურში ბენტლით მოდის, მისი შეხედულება ამ ადამიანის ფინანსური შესაძლებლობების შესახებ იცვლება.
მაგრამ რატომ სურთ ადამიანებს, ჩანდნენ უფრო მდიდრები, ვიდრე რეალურად არიან? მტკიცებულებები მიუთითებს ევოლუციურ უპირატესობაზე, რადგან, როგორც ჩანს, რესურსებზე წვდომა ზრდის ადამიანის სექსუალურ მიმზიდველობას (ძირითადად მამაკაცებში, რომლებსაც გარკვეული ევოლუციური მიზეზების გამო, რომელთაც აქ არ განვიხილავთ, უფრო გამალებით უწევთ პარტნიორისთვის ბრძოლა, ვიდრე ქალებს). მაგალითად, დამტკიცებულია, რომ ოჯახური მდგომარეობა არის სანდო წყარო მამაკაცის დემონსტრაციული მოხმარების ხარისხის განსაზღვრისთვის – დასაოჯახებელი მამაკაცები ყიდულობენ უფრო ძვირადღირებულ სმარტფონებსა და მანქანებს, ვიდრე დაოჯახებულები (იხ. ჰენიგჰაუსენი და შვაბი (2014): „ოჯახური მდგომარეობა არეგულირებს მამაკაცების დემონტრაციულ მოხმარებას სმარტფონებზე“, Letters on Evolutionary Behavioral Science 5, 13-16 გვ.). მამალი ფარშევანგის მსგავსად, უფრო გულუხვი შეფუთვა ქალებს მიანიშნებს, რომ რეპროდუქტიული რესურსები იმდენად უხვია, რომ მათ შეუძლიათ, საკუთარ თავს უფლება მისცენ, ჰქონდეთ უაღრესად თვალსაჩინო (და შესაბამისად, სარისკო) რესურს-ინტენსიური და, უფრო მეტიც, ობსტრუქციული ბეწვის ქურქი. მამაკაცი, რომელიც ყიდულობს როლექსის საათს, აჩვენებს ქალებს, რომ ის იმდენად მდიდარია, რომ შეუძლია რამდენიმე ათასი აშშ დოლარი დახარჯოს საათში, რომელიც იმავე მოვალეობას ასრულებს, რასაც 20-დოლარიანი საათი.
პარადოქსულია, მაგრამ დემონსტრაციული მოხმარება უფრო ხშირად გვხვდება ღარიბ საზოგადოებაში. მოავმა და ნემანმა თავი მოუყარეს ძალიან ბევრ მტკიცებულებას (დეტალური ინფორმაცია შეგიძლიათ იხილოთ მათ ნაშრომში). მაგალითად, სოფლად მცხოვრები ინდოელები საშუალოდ თავიანთი შემოსავლის 15-20%-ს ხარჯავენ ფესტივალებზე, მაშინ, როდესაც, სამხრეთ აფრიკის შავკანიანი მოსახლეობა საშუალოდ ერთი წლის შემოსავალს ხარჯავს ახალგაზრდების გასვენებაში. ამავდროულად, ისინი, როგორც წესი, თავიანთი შემოსავლის 1%-ზე ნაკლებს ხარჯავენ გართობის ისეთ ნაკლებად ტრანსპარენტულ ფორმებზე, როგორიცაა, მაგალითად, კინოთეატრი. ნიუ იორკ თაიმსის სტატია მოგვითხრობს ღარიბი ინდოელი ფერმერის ამბავს, რომელმაც 109,000 ათას აშშ დოლარად გაყიდა თავისი ფერმა და შემდეგ 8,327 აშშ დოლარად იქირავა თვითმფრინავი, რათა მისი ვაჟი საკუთარ ქორწილში თვითმფრინავით მისულიყო.
ჩარლზის, ჰარსტისა და რუსანოვის (2009) განმარტების თანახმად, დემონსტრაციული მოხმარება უფრო ეფექტურია ღარიბ საზოგადოებაში („დემონსტრაციული მოხმარება და დოღი“, Quarterly Journal of Economics 124,425-67 გვ.) ისინი თავიანთ არგუმენტს სამი მიზეზით ხსნიან: (1) მოთხოვნა-მიწოდების კანონის თანახმად, რაც უფრო ღარიბია ქორწინების ბაზარი, მით უფრო ძვირად ფასობს მიმზიდველი ნიშან-თვისება. ამიტომ „ფარული შემოსავალი“ უფრო მიმზიდველი ჩანს, როდესაც ადამიანების უმრავლესობა ღარიბია. (2) ფაქტი, რომ ვიღაც მდიდარია, ღარიბ საზოგადოებაში უფრო მეტ გაოცებას იწვევს, რაც, შესაბამისად, ვიღაცის რეპუტაციაზე უფრო მეტ გავლენას ახდენს (თუ ყველამ უკვე დაუშვა, რომ ვიღაცა მდიდარია, პორშეს მარკის ავტომობილის ყიდვა უკვე დიდ სხვაობას აღარ იძლევა). (3) მდიდარ საზოგადოებაში სხვებზე შთაბეჭდილების მოხდენა გაცილებით ძვირი ღირს. როდესაც მაღალი კლასის მანქანები ფართოდაა გავრცელებული, როგორც ეს ხდება ლუქსემბურგისა და შვეიცარიის მსგავს ზოგიერთ ევროპულ ქვეყანაში, მაშინ ადამიანს სჭირდება როლს-როისი ან ბენტლი, რომ რეალური შთაბეჭდილება მოახდინოს სხვებზე. საქართველოს მსგავს მცირეშემოსავლიან ქვეყანაში კი, მეორეს მხრივ, Toyota Land Cruiser ან BMW X6 სრულიად საკმარისია ამისთვის.
არის თუ არა ეს ეკონომიკურად წამგებიანი?
ერთი შეხედვით, შეიძლება ვიფიქროთ, რომ ასეთი დამოკიდებულება ეკონომიკისთვის სასარგებლოა. განა ეს ხელს არ უწყობს ძვირადღირებულ სმარტფონებზე, საათებსა და მანქანებზე მოთხოვნის ზრდას?
მოავი და ნემანი გვაჩვენებენ, რომ საკითხი ბევრად უფრო რთულია და რომ ჭეშმარიტი სიღარიბე შეიძლება სწორედ დემონსტაციული მოხმარებისგან მოდიოდეს. უპირველესი პრობლემა ისაა, რომ დემონსტრაციული მოხმარება ანაცვლებს უფრო საჭირო ხარჯებს, როგორიცაა, მაგალითად, საპენსიო ასაკისთვის თანხის დაზოგვა ან შვილების განათლების ხარჯები: „უკიდურესად ღარიბი ადამიანი თავისი შემოსავლის მხოლოდ 2-3%-ს ხარჯავს საკუთარი შვილების განათლებაზე, არ იკვებება კარგად, აქვს ცუდი ჯანმრთელობა და ამტკიცებს, რომ იმდენად ღელავს, რომ ეს გავლენას ახდენს მის ძილსა და მუშაობაზე. ხშირ შემთხვევაში, ის ვერ ახერხებს სასიცოხლო ინვესტიციის ჩადებას საკუთარ საქმეში და იმდენად ცოტას ზოგავს, რომ ვერ ახერხებს საკვების თანხის შემცირების თავიდან აცილებას, როდესაც განიცდის შემოსავლის დროებით შეწყვეტას“.
მოავისა და ნემანის აზრით, მეორე პრობლემა ისაა, რომ დემონსტრაციული მოხმარება უფრო მნიშვნელოვანი ხდება, რაც უფრო ნაკლებ ადამიანურ კაპიტალს აგროვებს ადამიანი. ხარისხის ან წოდების ქონა არის ძლიერი სიგნალი ადამიანის შემოსავლის შესახებ და ამცირებს, მაგალითად, მერსედეს კაბრიოს ყიდვის აუცილებლობას.
მანკიერი ციკლი შეიძლება იყოს შედეგი: როდესაც ადამიანი ან საზოგადოება ღარიბდება, ის უფრო მეტს ხარჯავს დემონსტრაციული მოხმარებისთვის და ნაკლებს შვილების განათლებისთვის. ადამიანური კაპიტალის შემცირება განაპირობებს მომდევნო თაობაში შემოსავლის შემცირებასა და დემონსტრაციული მოხმარების აუცილებლობის ზრდას. ორივე შემთხვევაში საფასური ფასი მაღალია, იმიტომ, რომ ადამიანური კაპიტალი ვერ ახერხებს „მარიაჟობის“ ჩანაცვლებას. შედეგად, ადამიანები კიდევ უფრო დემონსტრაციულად მოიხმარენ ფუფუნების ნივთებს, რაც იწვევს კიდევ უფრო მცირე ინვესტიციების ჩადებას ადამიანურ კაპიტალში და ა.შ.
და საქართველო?
დემონსტრაციული მოხმარების ყოველდღიურ დასტურს ვხვდებით საქართველოშიც, მაგალითად, Toyota Land Rovers-ისა და BMW X6-ის სიხშირე თბილისის ქუჩებში. ის ფაქტი, რომ უფრო ღარიბი ქართველები საზოგადოებრივი ტრანსპორტით მგზავრობას მანქანის ყოლას არჩევენ, შეიძლება უკვე იყოს დემონსტრაციული მოხმარება. ერთ-ერთი ბანკის თანამშრომლისგან გავიგეთ, რომ 2008 წლის ფინანსური კრიზისის დროს ბევრი ადამიანი საკუთარი ბინის გაყიდვას ამჯობინებდა მანქანის გაყიდვას. აიფონების სიხშირეც მოსალოდნელზე ბევრად უფრო მაღალია იმ ქვეყნისთვის, სადაც ყოველთვიური საშუალო ნომინალური შემოსავალი 300 აშშ დოლარია, ასევე, სახეზე გვაქვს დანაზოგის ძალიან დაბალი მაჩვენებელი და დიდი სავაჭრო დეფიციტი. მიუხედავად იმისა, რომ ჩვენ ხელთ არ გვაქვს ციფრები, რითიც ჩვენს მოსაზრებას გავამყარებდით, სავარაუდოდ, სხვა დაბალ-შემოსავლიანი ქვეყნების მაგალითი შეიძლება საქართველოსაც მოერგოს.
დემონსტრაციულ მოხმარებასთან დაკავშირებული ერთ-ერთი სიძნელე ისაა, რომ მას ვერ დაბეგრავ – ვებლენის ნივთებზე ფასის გაზრდით ისინი კიდევ უფრო მიმზიდველი გახდება. დემოკრატიულ, ინდივიდუალისტურ საზოგადოებაში კი ადამიანი ვერ მოიქცევა ისე, როგორც ტაჯიკეთის პრეზიდენტი, ემომალი რაჰმონი, რომელმაც აკრძალა ოქროს კბილები, უნივერსიტეტებში მობილური ტელეფონის გამოყენება და დაბადების დღის დიდი წვეულებები. მან გააკრიტიკა მდიდარი მოქალაქეები „ბრწინვალე წვეულებებით საკუთარი სიმდიდრის დემონსტრირებისა და ამით სხვებისთვის სტანდარტის დაწესებით, რომლებიც დიდი წვეულებების მოწყობით ცდილობენ, მდიდრები გამოჩნდნენ, მიუხედავად მათი მოკრძალებული შემოსავლისა“. პრეზიდენტმა შეზღუდა ადამიანებისა და საკვების რაოდენობა ქორწილებზე, რათა დაიცვას ტაჯიკები, რომელთა 60% სიღარიბის ზღვარს ქვემოთაა, რათა „მათ თავიანთი სასიცოცხლო დანაზოგი არ გამოიყენონ მხოლოდ იმისთვის, რომ შეეჯიბრონ თავიანთ მეზობლებს“.
დემონსტრაციული მოხმარების ამ მანკიერი ციკლიდან გაქცევის ერთადერთი საშუალებაა ვაქციოთ იგი სწორ ციკლად. თუ ადამიანებს წავახალისებთ, დააგროვონ უფრო მეტი (და შესაბამისი) ადამიანური კაპიტალი და ინვესტიცია ჩადონ საკუთარი შვილების განათლებაში, ისინი უფრო მდიდრები გახდებიან და დემონსტრაციული მოხმარება დაკარგავს თავის მნიშვნელობას. შესაძლოა, ეს უკვე დაწყებულიც იყოს, რადგან დადებითი დინამიკა უკვე შეიმჩნევა – მთავრობა მეტ ყურადღებას უთმობს განათლების სისტემას, უფრო მეტად ფასდება ქართველი საზოგადოების წიგნიერება, უკანასკანლე წლებში ფიქსირდება ზრდის უფრო მაღალი მაჩვენებელი.
თუ ყველაფერი კარგად წავა, დიდი მანქანები, ძვირადღირებული მობილური ტელეფონები და სხვა უმწიფარი ჩვევები წლებთან ერთად სულ უფრო მცირე და უფრო უმნიშვნელო გახდება.
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